Global Governance in the New Era: Concepts and Approaches

This book mainly introduces the concepts and approaches of global governance from the viewpoints of Chinese and Russian scholars and is divided into four parts. The first one deals with the concept of a new type of global governance, namely "Globalization 2.0". The second one is dedicated to institutions and multilateralism, including the importance and effectiveness of international institutions. The third part focuses on the important countries and regions in the new era, as well as such issues as the current global status quo, processes in Eurasia, the prospects of the U.S.-China-Russia trilateral relationship. The last part analyzes the future development of global governance and possible solutions of how it might be improved. Climate change, digital era, cyber security, financial and economic regimes, COVID-19 are all involved in this part. In short, this book is a profound and cutting-edge research on global governance. © China Social Sciences Press 2023.

EXITitis in the UK: Gravity Estimates in the Aftermath of Brexit.

The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union has had disruptive effects on international trade. As part of its 'Global Britain' strategy in the wake of Brexit, the UK is pursuing a series of Free Trade Agreements with countries around the world, including Canada, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey and possibly the United States. Closer to home, the UK is under mounting pressure to dissuade Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales from seeking independence to regain the severed ties with the EU. We analyze the economic consequences of these scenarios with a state-of-the-art structural gravity model for major economies around the world. We find that 'Global Britain' yields insufficient trade creation to compensate for Brexit-induced trade losses. Our results also reveal that secession from the UK in itself would inflict greater post-Brexit economic harm on the devolved nations of Great Britain. Nevertheless, these effects could be offset when secession from the UK is combined with regained EU membership.

International Trade in the Post-Soviet Space: Trends, Threats, and Prospects for the Internal Trade within the Eurasian Economic Union

This paper discusses the dynamics of foreign trade in the post-Soviet space within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) during the period from 2015 to 2021. Additionally, the paper analyzes export indicators in foreign and mutual trade of the EAEU member countries and diversification of the commodity structure as well as its dynamics based on the commodity concentration index for each member country. Our paper identifies the strengths and weaknesses of the EAEU, analyzes the opportunities and threats of development, and focuses on the trends and prospects. The main strengths include the institutional and legal structure of the EAEU single market, the historical, cultural, and economic proximity of the EAEU member countries, the transit potential of the territory, the high level of domestic trade, and the increasing share of ruble transactions in the trade turnover. The most significant weaknesses are the low efficiency of the institutional structure, the gap in the socio-economic level of development of the participating countries, unstable geopolitical situations in some member countries, the low level of recognition of the EAEU in the world market, economic and political conflicts of interests of the member countries, and the dependence on Western technologies in some key industries. Strategically important opportunities can be found in the creation and implementation of a long-term development strategy, diversification of trade with the Middle East and Asian countries, expansion in terms of the territorial composition, development of the institutional and legal structure as well as cooperation ties, as well as the cooperation in the field of technological innovation and financial security. Among the most significant threats were identified the outpacing growth in the share of EAEU members' trade with China, the expansion of economic and political contradictions between the EAEU member countries, and the strengthening of the positions of alternative currencies in foreign trade.

Trade for Food Security: The Stability of Global Agricultural Trade Networks.

Global food production is facing increasing uncertainties under climate change and the coronavirus pandemic, provoking challenges and severe concerns to national food security. The role of global agricultural trade in bridging the imbalance between food supply and demand has come to the fore. However, the impact of multifaceted and dynamic factors, such as trade policies, national relations, and epidemics, on the stability of the agricultural trade network (ATN) needs to be better addressed. Quantitatively, this study estimated grouping characteristics and network stability by analyzing the changing global ATN from 1986 to 2018. We found that the evolution of global agricultural trade communities has gone through four stages: the dominance of the US-Asian community, the rise of the European-African community, the formation of tri-pillar communities, and the development of a multipolar community with a more complex structure. Despite witnessing a progressive increase in the nodal stability of the global ATN during the decades, particular gaps can still be found in stability across countries. Specifically, the European community achieved stability of 0.49 and its trade relations were effectively secured. Meanwhile, the remaining leading communities' stability shows a stable and upward trend, albeit with more significant challenges in trade relations among some of them. Therefore, how to guarantee the stability of trade relations and strengthen the global ATN to resist external shocks has become an essential question to safeguard global food security.

Pandemic and Reverse Migration in India

As the most significant contributor to the worlds migrant population, India witnessed a massive reverse migration during the COVID-19 pandemic. The unprecedented return of international and internal migrants to their domicile challenged the Indian economy. Integration of returnees was a colossal task for the government. Against this backdrop, this study analysed the extent of reverse migration, the socioeconomic challenges faced by migrants during the repatriation, the government response to reverse migration and the economic integration of returnees. By reviewing relevant literature, this study exposed the inability of the Indian economic sectors to absorb the reverse migrants and the limited power of migration to bring about a structural transformation in the Indian economy.

A contested foundation of European integration: The free movement of labour

Since the eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU), the movement from east to west has become the main driver of intra-EU mobility. Recently, the free movement of labour has been contested not only in the debates around Brexit, but also in other receiving countries. It is not on the political agenda, but several studies have highlighted the economic and demographic effects of massive emigration in eastern EU Member States. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the functioning of free movement. Economic integration theory assumes that migration continues until wages are equalized in the receiving and sending countries. This paper analyses the perception of intra-EU mobility in the literature and empirically tests whether there is a relationship between the dynamism of income growth in the receiving (Germany, Austria and Spain) and sending (Central and Eastern European) countries, and the dynamism of migration. The empirical results do not support the neoclassical assumption that an equalization mechanism can function, even in the long run. To cope with recent challenges, this paper argues that free movement should not be considered as an element of a spontaneous market mechanism, but as an economic-political product, based on a constitutional order. © 2022 The Author(s).

Economic growth in Mexico and its dependence on US countercyclical policies within the context of integration

The COVID pandemic has affected the global economy and most countries are facing a double crisis: health and economic. Mexico's responses to these crises have been among the worst in all Latin America. The aim of this paper is to analyse Mexico's economic dynamics and its response to the pandemic crisis, paying particular attention to the role played by the US countercyclical policy. Based on the study of the changes and implications of the process of economic liberalization and trade integration with the US as well as the comparative growth and budget spending patterns, it is concluded that its countercyclcial policy contributes to Mexican economic growth. The results show there is no roadmap for dismantling the neo-liberal economic model. Mexico finds itself tied to the US economic cycle. © 2022 Universidad de Santiago de Compostela

Globalisation and economic growth in Africa: New evidence from the past two decades

Background: In the last two decades, the world experienced two overlapping global shocks – that is, the 2008–2009 financial crisis and the COVID-19 lockdowns – with severe social and economic consequences on African economies that have, once again, brought to the fore the intricate role that globalisation plays in economic growth because of grave risks that often accompany it. Aim: We consider three research questions about globalisation: (i) does globalisation heighten economic growth? (ii) is there a statistically significant threshold level of globalisation above which globalisation affects growth differently than at lower levels? (iii) what factors moderate the globalisation-economic growth nexus? Setting: A panel of 47 selected countries from Africa from 2001 to 2018 is under scrutiny. Method: To begin, it applies an overlapping five-year moving average (MA) to smoothen the data. In addition, we employ the revised globalisation index and the two-step systems generalised method of the moment (GMM) in its empirical strategy. Results: We find a largely insignificant relationship between globalisation and economic growth. We attribute these results to Africa’s infinitesimal share – less than 5% – in foreign direct investment (FDI) and global trade, acute infrastructure deficit and the lack of relevant skills that lead to productivity losses and weak performance within the international business ecosystem. We also find, among others, that globalisation is more effective in countries with more gross capital formation, higher population and urban growth rates. Conclusion: For Africa to maximise its growth potential from globalisation, sound policies should be put in place to promote trade, FDI, domestic capital formation and urbanisation. We suggest that future studies investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship between globalisation and economic growth. © 2022. The Authors.

Assessing the effects of trade regionalism in East Asia – evidence from augmented gravity models

This paper investigates the effects of trade regionalism in East Asia from 1995 to 2018, by applying a series of gravity models. An initial, basic gravity model is repeatedly augmented to account for a range of economic, geographical, cultural, and above all institutional factors representing free trade agreements in effect. Unlike previous studies, this investigation distinguishes between the bilateral and multilateral measures of regional trading arrangements. Two interesting findings are reported. First, the results confirm the impact of trade regionalism on the export flows between the economies of East Asia in the period under study. Second, the effects of multilateral trading agreements vary greatly depending on the agreement and on the particular country's range of influence, in particular cases showing no sufficient economic benefits. Overall, the results point to the complementarity of bilateral and multilateral trading arrangements in the region and to the emergence of a certain distinctive model of cooperation and integration in East Asia - which has been underpinned during the COVID-19 pandemic by the conclusion of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and which will be further verified in the post-COVID character of global trade and regional trading arrangements.

Economic Fundamentals for Development of International Road Freight Transportation Logistics in the Republic of Belarus under Coronavirus Pandemic

The paper considers an issue of international logistics development in Belarus under world coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. As a result of analytical reviewing of the up-to-date scientific literature on the problem under study, the expediency is stated for highlighting the logistics of international road freight transportation as an independent area of theoretical research and practical activity. Further development of international road freight transportation logistics in the Republic of Belarus requires a complex economic analysis of the present state and dynamics of the international road freight transportation market, which is the main purpose of the present publication. The paper contains the results of the analysis of the market for international and transit freight road transportation. Separately the paper points out the dynamics of transit goods transportation segment in this market in response to the reorientation of international freight flows. Interconnection is shown between the volume indices of international road freight transit through the territory of Belarus and the dynamics of goods import to the Russian Federation from the EU countries. For the first time a proposal is given to use the methodological tools of system-matrix diagnostic analysis for investigation of the macroeconomic development process of international road freight transit logistics. The author's set of initial parameters for the analysis has been formed, and its results are presented on the basis of the data of the State statistical reporting form for 2019-2020. A suggestion is given for joint usage of system-matrix diagnostic tools in combination with author's methodology for assessing the effectiveness of transit (international) freight transportation while evaluating the competitiveness of economic entities in the industry. The most typical trends of the market development in the short term are stated, taking into account the more complicated market conditions.

Drivers of Economic Catch-up in Asia: A Study of ASEAN Countries with Comparative Views of China and India

This paper conducts a comprehensive examination of the sources of economic growth and catch-up of ASEAN countries since the Asian Financial Crisis, with comparative views ofChina and India. The study employs different decomposition frameworks to gain insights into the drivers of the Association's economic performance over the 1997-2017 period. Three findings are most notable. First, all ten member states, except for Brunei, recorded a strong catch up performance, with labour productivity being the leading driver in most countries. Second, the drivers of labour productivity catch-up exhibit some distinctive patterns among countries, which depend on the level of income and economic structure. Third, in all decomposition analyses, ASEAN countries are well below China and India across sources of growth, which tends to suggest that countries in the grouping could improve their performance by enhancing market integration and policy coordination. Although the long-term prospect of ASEAN is bright, the COVID19 pandemic and the recent military coup in Myanmar have indicated that the road to future prosperity of the region is expected to face formidable challenges.

ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION AND REGIONAL INTEGRATION IN THE POST-COVID ERA

While significant, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic globalization and regional integration is temporary. The same objective factors that existed before the pandemic will determine integration trends in the future. The key role belongs to scientific and technical progress, and the effect of the pandemic was rather on the stimulating side here. Research in the field of medicine accelerated, online mode is already all-pervading and digitalization tends to become ubiquitous. The crisis has brought closer the onset of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which is expected to open the next stage of globalization, entailing shifts in the structure and dynamics of world production and trade. It can be assumed that new technologies will contribute to the development of the organization of global value chains (GVC), one of the main drivers of economic globalization and regional integration. Probable changes in the way of life and the corresponding shifts in consumption patterns in favor of services will also contribute to modifications in the structure of GVCs. Apparently, we should expect an increase in the processes of glocalization, which can be briefly defined as globalization with local specifics. COVID-19, which has caused disruptions in supply chains, has strengthened the course of self-reliance in the economic policy of some countries. The inconsistency between the method used by governments (protectionism) and the driving forces of the phenomenon that they are trying to resist (scientific and technological progress) leads to losses in productivity and competitiveness. It is necessary to distinguish between re-industrialization, stimulated by artificial methods, from re-industrialization, which has objective reasons and corresponds to the evolution of the world economy. The latter is not equivalent either to the return of previously exported production facilities or to the re-creation of the “pre-globalization” economic structure and cannot be regarded as a manifestation of de-globalization tendencies. The world realized the need to strengthen international cooperation and develop measures aimed at joint preparation and a coordinated response to possible new threats. Outbreaks of protectionism prove to be temporary. The long-term trend towards international trade liberalization will continue. © 2022.

Evaluation of macroeconomic outcomes and the seven-year membership of Croatia in the European Union

The paper evaluates the Croatia 's seven-year membership in the European Union based on selected macroeconomic indicators by using a methodological approach, counterfactual analysis, and a synthetic control method. The results showed that the effect of the accession stimulated the economic growth and components of aggregate demand, income, savings and sectoral productivity. Also, strong disturbances with the onset of the crisis in 2009 were detected, the effects ofwhich ultimately had a negative consequence in terms of more successful economic integration. Accession to the EU halted the dedine in macroeconomic indicators and began a mild, but still insufficient recovery. The research confirms a strong trend of export development after 2013, a strong turn and increase in savings, a strong and significant decline in the value added of the agriculture sector as well as not recovered consumption. Also, the positive effect in the reduction of government expenditures is expressed.

Ecommerce Surge as an Element of a Modern Economy Integration Mechanism Development

Purpose: The purpose of the chapter is to investigate the e-commerce development process taking into account its determining factors, including the spread of the new coronavirus infection COVID-19, and possible consequences. Design/Methodology/Approach: The authors explore statistical data from leading research companies in order to examine not only their results but also the methodological base, new research tools that allow conducting researches taking into account the specifics of e-commerce as a relatively new economic phenomenon. Findings: It is shown that e-commerce growth is obtained by the large-scale permanent involvement of new consumers and widening the range of product categories they buy. The e-commerce transactions increase is going to surpass the traditional retail growth not only during the crisis period but also after the pandemic is over. E-commerce will stay a key growth opportunity for manufacturers and retailers, underscoring the need to study the features of its development, identify which countries and industries are best positioned to retain the e-commerce surge, plan and implement omnichannel strategies. Originality/Value: The article combines the results of the latest research and allows to get an understanding of the e-commerce development as part of the new economy and form an opinion about the significance of this phenomenon, the prospects for investment in e-commerce assets, the development of omnichannel strategies. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

European Integration Risks in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Economic integration is one of the key trends in the modern economy. The undisputed leader of this process is the European Union (EU). The COVID-19 pandemic led to some instability in the EU. Brexit exacerbated this instability. Under these conditions, the question arises: is the impact of COVID-19 on European integration a one-time shock that will soon lose its significance, or are more fundamental reasons at the heart of the disintegration potential. The study aims to evaluate the risks of integration processes in the EU. Two indicators were used to quantify the degree of convergence: β-convergence and σ-convergence. A quantitative analysis of convergence showed a high degree of convergence of countries in terms of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and a lack of convergence in terms of labor productivity. Consumption in countries with catch-up development comes primarily from the redistribution of the EU budget and the wages of migrants. This redistribution weakens integration incentives for donor countries. And restrictions of COVID-19 pandemic weaken incentives for integration for recipient countries. Therefore, the likelihood of disintegration in the EU is increasing. © 2021,International Journal of Technology.All Rights Reserved

COVID-19 and Global Supply Chain Configuration: Economic and Emissions Impacts of Australia-China Trade Disruptions.

Economic shocks from COVID-19, coupled with ongoing US-China tensions, have raised debates around supply chain (or global value chain) organisation, with China at the centre of the storm. However, quantitative studies that consider the global and economy-wide impacts of rerouting supply chains are limited. This study examines the economic and emissions impacts of reorganising supply chains, using Australia-China trade as an example. It augments the Hypothetical Extraction Method by replacing traditional Input-Output analysis with a Computable General Equilibrium analysis. The estimation results demonstrate that in both exports and imports, a trade embargo between Australia and China - despite being compensated for by alternative supply chains-will cause gross domestic production losses and emissions increases for both countries and the world overall. Moreover, even though all other economies gain from the markets left by China, many of them incur overall gross domestic production losses and emission increases. The finding that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and India may also suffer from an Australia-China trade embargo, despite a gain in trade volume, suggests that no country should add fuel to the fire. The results suggest that countries need to defend a rules-based trading regime and jointly address supply chain challenges.